On January 1, 2027, the federal ban on non-Canadians buying homes here is scheduled to end, and with about eleven weeks to go nobody in Ottawa will say what happens next. Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne was asked about it last Wednesday and would say only that the government is weighing every option. Sellers have started asking me if offshore buyers are about to come back, and buyers have started asking if they should hurry. My answer to both is no, at least in Ontario, and the reason is a provincial tax that most of the coverage leaves out.
What the ban covers, and what it never did
The Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act took effect on January 1, 2023, as a two-year measure, and in February 2024 it was extended to the start of 2027. It stops people who are neither citizens nor permanent residents, and the companies they control, from buying houses, townhouses and condo units in and around Canadian cities. The exemptions are wider than most people realize. Someone on a work permit with at least 183 days left on it can buy one home. So can some international students, refugees, and anyone buying with a Canadian spouse. Vacant land, buildings with four or more units and property outside urban areas were never covered. The penalty for breaking the rule is a fine of up to $10,000 and a possible court-ordered sale (CMHC; Department of Finance Canada).
Did it accomplish anything? That is an open argument. The best data we have suggest foreign owners held no more than five per cent of homes in any major Canadian market in 2020, before the ban existed. CIBC's Benjamin Tal told Bloomberg the policy "doesn't make any sense" and should be allowed to lapse, on the theory that offshore money helps get new buildings financed. Mike Moffatt at the University of Ottawa made a similar case while conceding that the ban is popular, and that popularity is what makes this awkward for the government. Housing Minister Gregor Robertson has said this year was being used to study how other countries handle it, Australia in particular, where foreign buyers may purchase newly built homes and are kept out of existing ones.
Ontario's 25 per cent tax stays either way
The piece that matters on our side of the provincial line is the Non-Resident Speculation Tax. Since October 25, 2022, Ontario has charged 25% on homes bought anywhere in the province by foreign nationals and foreign corporations. That tax is provincial law, and it stays put no matter what Ottawa decides. Toronto added its own 10 per cent on top at the start of 2025, though that one stops at Steeles.
So picture the ban vanishing on New Year's Day and an overseas buyer taking an interest in a $1.6 million house in Unionville. Before land transfer tax, legal fees or a single piece of furniture, that buyer owes the province $400,000. Very few people will pay that to own a resale home, and the ones who would were mostly finding a legal route in already, through a work permit or a spouse.
I have been selling in Markham long enough to remember when offshore buyers were a real presence on offer night, and I understand why the question makes people uneasy on both sides. That was a market with no speculation tax at all until 2017, then one at 15 per cent, and prices rising fast enough to absorb it. Today the tax is 25 per cent and the national benchmark price is roughly 20 per cent below its peak. - The arithmetic that drew that money here has changed.
Where an expiry or an Australian-style rewrite could matter is pre-construction. Builders need a good share of units sold before a lender will finance a tower, and the condo projects planned around Markham Centre and along Highway 7, like projects across the GTA, have had a hard time getting there. If Ottawa opens new construction to foreign buyers, some stalled buildings may find their footing, and Queen's Park would then face pressure to soften its own tax for new builds. That is a story for 2027 and later, and it would add supply without putting anyone new at the table for a resale house this spring.
If you are selling this winter, do not hold your listing back for a wave of overseas buyers in January, because the provincial tax will keep that wave small. If you are buying, do not let a headline about the ban ending rush you into an offer you would not otherwise make. Were it up to me, I would let non-residents buy new construction and keep resale homes for the people who live here, which is roughly where I expect Ottawa to land. They have to announce something before the calendar turns, and I will update this post when they do.