RE/MAX Canada Network expects Canadian housing market prices to decrease 2.2 per cent this fall
Toronto, ON and Kelowna, BC, September 28, 2022 – RE/MAX brokers and agents are anticipating the national average residential sale price in the Canadian housing market to decline 2.2 per cent in the final months of the year (September-December), according to RE/MAX’s 2022 Fall Canadian Housing Market Outlook Report. This market moderation comes on the heels of rising interest rates, record-high inflation and broader global and economic uncertainties that have impacted consumer confidence and market activity. Bucking the downward trend, seven out of 30 Canadian housing markets analyzed are likely to experience modest price appreciation between 1.5 and seven per cent. Meanwhile, RE/MAX brokers and agents expect a decline in sales this fall, in 18 out of 30 markets surveyed.
“Despite the fact that nearly half of Canadians are waiting to buy or sell a home, we’re confident that as economic conditions improve by mid-2023, activity will resume,” says Elton Ash, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Canada. “Timing the market for short-term investment is extremely difficult and rarely successful. But as a long-term investment, the Canadian housing market continues to yield solid returns. If someone needs to buy or sell, regardless of those cyclical peaks and valleys, being informed and working with an experienced real estate professional can help consumers clarify some of those unknowns and make the best decision possible.”
Ontario
Much like other provinces across the country, Ontario has not been immune to the impacts of rising interest rates. Many markets including Oakville, Windsor, Barrie, Durham, Kingston and Kitchener-Waterloo, anticipate – and in some cases already experiencing – a reduction in the number of units sold over the coming months. Apart from Oakville and Muskoka, average residential sale prices in Ontario are likely to remain steady or decrease between two to 10 per cent in the fall months.
Similar to Western Canada, the luxury market has remained resilient and in-demand among buyers in Oakville, despite rising interest rates and a looming recession – a contributing factor to the modest two-per-cent average residential sale price increase expected in Oakville this fall. Muskoka continues to attract homebuyers to the area, while simultaneously, many sellers are eager to sell before year-end. Given a steady stream of demand, Muskoka is expected to experience a modest five-per-cent increase in average residential sale price this fall. In Peterborough, interest rate hikes and the subsequent effects on the stress test have eroded affordability in the area, which is the main factor contributing to the seven-per-cent decrease in average residential sale price expected in the coming months. The return of conditional offers has been a prevalent trend across the province, including in Kingston, Kitchener-Waterloo, Muskoka and Peterborough. Echoing many regions across Canada, Durham, London, Sudbury, Ottawa, the Lakelands and the Greater Toronto housing market are expected to regain balance in 2023, albeit with low inventory continuing to place upward pressure on prices. As one of the more affordable markets in Ontario, Thunder Bay is unlikely to experience any significant fluctuations in average residential sale prices this fall.