The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market is experiencing an unprecedented downturn. New home sales have fallen to levels even lower than those seen during the 1990s housing crash, signalling serious implications for supply, affordability, and construction activity in the years ahead.
Sales at Record Lows
In April 2025, only 310 new homes were sold in the GTA — a 72 percent decline compared to April 2024, and 89 percent below the 10-year average for the month, which typically sees around 2,750 sales. By comparison, even at the lowest point of the 1990s housing downturn, monthly sales were nearly double what we are seeing today.
Market Breakdown by Housing Type
Condominiums: 105 units sold
80% lower year-over-year
94% below the 10-year average
Single-Family Homes: 205 units sold
66% lower year-over-year
77% below the 10-year average
Condo sales include units in low, medium, and high-rise buildings. Single-family homes include detached, semi-detached, linked houses, and townhomes.
Price Trends
Condos:
Benchmark price: $1.019 million
Down 3.6% year-over-year
Single-Family Homes:
Benchmark price: $1.53 million
Down 5.4% year-over-year
Market Sentiment and Buyer Behaviour
Buyers are hesitating amid economic uncertainty and speculation about new tariffs. Edward Jegg, research manager at Altus Group, noted, “Buyers crave predictability and the swirling uncertainty around the impact of possible tariffs is depriving would-be purchasers of the confidence they need to move ahead.”
This hesitancy is slowing both transactions and the launch of new housing projects.
Warning Signs of a Future Supply Crisis
BILD warns that the public may not yet realize how serious the slowdown is due to the lag between sales and construction. Justin Sherwood, Senior VP at BILD, noted that the industry is “decelerating quickly” and that a significant housing supply shortfall is forming.
2025 condo completions: 30,793 units
2028 forecasted completions: 9,561 units
This projected 69 percent drop in completions could lead to a housing shortage by the late 2020s.
Inventory Levels and Market Balance
Currently, the GTA’s new home inventory would take 15 months to sell at the current rate — well above the healthy range of 9 to 12 months. While inventory decreased slightly month-over-month, low sales are the main reason inventory remains elevated.
Government Policy and Industry Response
The federal government recently proposed a GST rebate for first-time buyers purchasing homes under $1 million. However, BILD argues this is insufficient.
Sherwood stated, “Very few new home buyers are first-time buyers. It will not substantially help address affordability, nor will it help significantly stimulate sales and construction.”
BILD is calling for GST relief to be extended to all new home purchasers.
Toronto’s new home market is currently enduring the most prolonged sales slump on record. With demand down sharply, prices sliding, and completions projected to fall dramatically, the GTA faces the dual threat of short-term instability and long-term housing shortages.
As this market continues to evolve, staying informed is essential for buyers, sellers, and developers alike.
