Sales over $5 million jump 58.5% in the fourth quarter of 2024

TORONTO’S LUXURY HOME MARKET RECORDS DOUBLE-DIGIT GROWTH

AS WAVE OF HIGH-END BUYERS FLEX PURCHASING POWER AMID MORE FAVOURABLE OUTLOOK

The Greater Toronto Area’s (GTA) luxury housing market shifted into high gear in the final quarter of 2024, with sales over $3 million climbing more than 40 per cent ahead of year-ago levels for the same period. Just over 360 freehold and condominium properties sold in Q4 2024, up from the 259 sales reported in Q4 2023, according to RE/MAX Canada.

“The impact of the first and second 50-basis-point rate cuts by the Bank of Canada radiated throughout the GTA in the fourth quarter, jumpstarting demand for high-end properties both within the city and suburbs. We’ve been expecting a surge in top-tier sales activity as the economic climate and corresponding pause in buying intentions prompted a build-up in pent-up demand. The fourth quarter did not disappoint.”

CHRISTOPHER ALEXANDER, PRESIDENT OF RE/MAX CANADA

Luxury home sales were almost equally split in the last three months of the year, with Toronto proper enjoying a slight edge (53 per cent), as buyers took advantage of suppressed housing values, particularly at uber-luxe price points between $5 million and $7.5 million. Sales over $5 million reported the strongest percentage gains, with more than 80 properties changing hands in the fourth quarter of 2024 – an increase of almost 59 per cent over the same period in 2023, according to MLS data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB). A 41.2-per-cent increase was posted in home sales over $7.5 million (24 versus 17), while the number of homes sold over $10 million were on par with year-ago levels. “The momentum in the luxury segment has outpaced the overall market in 2024,” says Alexander.

“Affluent buyers appear to have acclimatized to Toronto’s higher land transfer tax structure, which went into effect on January 1, 2024. The initial shock of the tax hike has likely subsided, and purchasers are simply treating it as the cost of doing business. That said, nearly half of the high-end sales over $5 million reported by TRREB occurred on the outskirts of the city. Last year, sales in the 905 represented just 36 per cent of luxury homebuying activity.” While ideal market conditions – including pent-up demand, softer housing values and increased inventory levels – existed through much of 2024, the 100-basis-point drop in the overnight rate was the primary catalyst beyond stronger buyer enthusiasm. Secondary drivers such as growing consumer confidence levels, coupled with near-record highs in the stock market in 2024 also played a role, given that the NASDAQ closed the year up 30 per cent; S&P 500 was up 24 per cent; the Dow Jones was up 13 per cent; while closer to home, the S&P/TSX composite index rose 18 per cent. Along with the strong performance of financial markets, the easing of inflationary pressures was another factor that contributed to the rising fortunes of wealthy investors. “Profit-taking was widespread at year end, with many stakeholders converting paper wealth to material wealth,” explains Alexander, noting the scenario was playing out south of the border as well. Luxury real estate has bounced back in top tier U.S. markets including Miami, New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco in the final quarter of 2024.

“The uptick in home-buying activity sets the stage for a strong luxury market in 2025,” says Alexander. “After several years of softer sales at higher price points, affluent buyers have the confidence to move forward once again. Supply has been a considerable factor hampering strong buyer intentions and we expect that to continue. While we do expect to see more listings come on stream, they’re being offset by the increase in buyers moving off the sidelines.”

SUPPLY IMPACTING VALUE AT UPPER PRICE POINTS

While market conditions varied by neighbourhood in the fourth quarter, pockets with the tightest supply saw values hold steady, while those with greater selection experienced a five- to 10-per-cent decline, especially at the $5 million to $7.5 million price point. To illustrate, the average price of the 84 homes sold over $5 million hovered at $7.56 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, down almost seven per cent from the $8.1-million average price tag on sales during Q4 of 2023. Toronto’s Rosedale-Moore Park area experienced the strongest activity, with 13 sales in Q4, followed by Forest Hill South (7), Bridle Path-Sunnybrook-York Mills (5), and St. Andrews-Winfields (5). In suburban markets, Oakville (8) led the 905 in terms of sales over $5 million, followed by Richmond Hill (6), Vaughan (4), King (4) and Milton (4).

On a year-over-year basis, the fourth quarter swell pushed overall luxury home-buying activity ahead of 2023 levels. Sales over the $3-million price point were up almost four per cent in 2024, with 1,514 sales occurring throughout the Greater Toronto Area, up from 1,456 one year earlier. A 21-per-cent increase was realized in luxury sales over $5 million, with 298 sales reported in 2024, compared to 246 in 2023. Sales over $7.5 million climbed 18 per cent, with 72 properties changing hands in 2024, compared to 61 in 2023. Sales over $10 million were up 17.4 per cent, with 27 homes sold in 2024, compared to 23 sales one year earlier. Q4 sales represented 24 per cent of overall luxury homes sales in 2024, compared to 17.7 per cent in 2023. Single-detached luxury homes remained in high demand, while condominiums experienced a turbulent 2024 across all price points, with a serious influx of inventory evident in the city’s downtown core. However, luxury homebuyers are slowly re-entering the top end of the market, with recovery expected to result in a turnaround by year-end 2025 and in early 2026, as aging sellers make lateral moves to luxury condos. The primary reasons behind the move to condos in the GTA this year is opportunity, followed by safety and security. Some luxury condo developments are attracting interest—a sign of the changing tide. For example, a new luxury condo project in the Bridle Path with large units is selling well in pre-sales. While domestic buyers have been most active in the market this year, there has been a resurgence in luxury home-buying activity among young, landed Chinese immigrants, many of whom seek assistance from their parents abroad. China continues to grow in affluence, with significant purchasing power in all categories of luxury goods globally and real estate remains no exception, despite stricter policies on foreign ownership in several countries. The transfer of wealth from baby boomers will also continue to empower Gen X, Millennials and some Gen Z buyers, with billions of dollars poised to change hands in Canada over the next decade. In many cases, this is happening sooner in life in the form of an early inheritance gifted by living relatives. Statistics Canada reports that nearly one-third of all first-time buyers in Canada cover their down payment—in whole or in part—by money from parents or relatives. Wealth transfer is propping up home-buying activity across all segments, including the luxe and uber-luxe segment. In the World’s Wealthiest Cities Report released in mid-2024 by London-based Henley & Partners, Toronto was ranked 13th in the world for the number of high-net-worth individuals. Despite an expected slowdown in population growth, overall demand for properties in Toronto is expected to remain solid, especially for single-detached homes, particularly as that category comprises a smaller percentage of overall sales in the years to come and as price growth and limited supply push more detached homes in luxe price points.

Social Media Evolution

It is interesting to note how consumption of our marketing materials slowly changes over time — and as should be no surprise to anyone, social media platform engagement evolves as our ‘new buyer’ demographic slowly changes. It’s been interesting to see how longer-form video and marketing material has started to give way to shorter-form ‘quick hits’ — YouTube engagement is a bit lower, while Instagram Reels / Facebook Stories are on the rise.

We are experimenting with doing more short form videos to engage with our audience - and we would love to hear your feedback! We’re starting to create some non-listing-specific video content that is much more general info on the marketplace, with great results so far. Have an idea or suggestion for a video, let us know in comments on any of the platforms you connect with us!

If you didn’t know - check us out on Instagram - @homesresource - https://www.instagram.com/homesresouce

https://www.facebook.com/homesresource

Canada’s New Tax Law on Home Sales: What You Need to Know

A recent Canadian tax law aims to curb speculative real estate sales by penalizing homeowners who sell a property within 365 days of purchase. Introduced in the 2022 federal budget and effective from January 2023, this law requires that any profit from such a sale be reported as business income, making it ineligible for the primary residence exemption. This could result in significant taxes, ranging from 28% to 53% of profits, depending on the seller's income bracket.

Exemptions to the Law

The Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) offers exemptions for homeowners forced to sell due to one of nine specified circumstances, including:

• Death, illness, or disability

• Marriage breakdown

• Job relocation or involuntary job loss

• Safety concerns or property expropriation

These exemptions are intended to support Canadians facing unavoidable challenges.

Additional Impact on Pre-Sale Condos and Assignments

The new rules also apply to pre-sale condos, where assignment sales are now subject to HST. Under the new policy, the CRA no longer needs to prove the seller intended to flip the property; any sale within a year automatically qualifies as business income unless an exemption applies.

CRA Monitoring and Penalties

The CRA has four real estate audit teams focused on high-risk areas in Ontario and British Columbia to ensure compliance. Non-compliance can lead to steep penalties, including a 50% surcharge on the tax owed and interest if false information is filed.

Tips for Homeowners

To avoid being taxed as a business, homeowners who want to sell should wait until after the 365-day mark to benefit from the primary residence exemption. Selling on day 366 could save substantial tax costs.

Timing is only part of a good sale. You can see how recent sellers in Unionville and Markham have done and what a well-run sale looks like.

New Mortgage Rules Coming December 20234

Starting December 15, 2024, new mortgage rules in Canada should significantly impact many first-time homebuyers, making it easier to enter the market.  These reforms, described as the boldest mortgage changes in decades by the federal government, are intended to help more Canadians, especially first-time homebuyers and younger generations, secure homeownership. The changes will also impact investors in pre-construction properties, making mortgages more accessible. 

Here's what you need to know:

1. Longer Amortization Periods: First-time buyers will now have the option of a 30-year amortization period instead of the traditional 25 years. This means your monthly payments could be around 9% lower, making it easier to afford a home. However, keep in mind that spreading payments over a longer period means paying more in total interest over the life of the mortgage​.

2. Higher Insured Mortgage Cap: The insured mortgage limit is increasing from $1 million to $1.5 million. This is crucial for buyers in high-cost cities like Toronto and Vancouver, where home prices frequently exceed $1 million. Now, you can qualify for an insured mortgage with a down payment as low as 5% on the first $500,000, and 10% on the remainder​.

3. Easier to Switch Lenders: One big change is that you can switch mortgage lenders without having to pass the stress test again at renewal. This increases competition among lenders, giving you a better chance to find more favorable rates​.

These changes aim to make homeownership more accessible, especially for those struggling with high property prices and rising interest rates.  However, as these changes are implemented, the long-term impact on the housing market remains to be seen - ultimately, the increased buying-power could drive up pricing, and once again increase competition. 

An extra $30,000 in your pocket?

I'm sure if you are on our mailing list, you already are well tuned into what has been happening at the Bank Of Canada recently, and we are happy to see that they have continued the downward trend on interest rates, with their additional 0.25% reduction this Wednesday.   Bond rates also almost dropped a full point on Tuesday, likely in anticipation of Wednesday's rate drop - not a 52 week low, but within 0.75 points of it, which should have a direct impact on fixed-rate mortgages most directly. 

August 2024 market statistics

The Toronto real estate market experienced a modest increase in home sales in August 2024, with transactions rising by 0.6% compared to the previous month. However, the market remains well-supplied, as new listings increased by 1.5% year-over-year. The total number of active listings was 46% higher than in August 2023, which has helped keep price growth moderate. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark fell by 4.6% compared to a year ago, while the average selling price decreased slightly by 0.8% to $1,074,425 

“The Bank of Canada’s rate cut announced on September 4 will lead to a further improvement in affordability, especially for those using variable rate mortgages. First-time buyers are especially sensitive to changes in borrowing costs. As mortgage rates continue to trend lower this year and next, we should experience an uptick in first-time buying activity, including in the condo market” predicts Toronto Regional Real Estate Board President Jennifer Pearce.

TRREB reported 4,975 home sales in August 2024 – down by 5.3 per cent compared to 5,251 sales reported in August 2023. New listings entered into the MLS® system amounted to 12,547 – up by 1.5 per cent year-over-year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, August sales edged up on a monthly basis compared to July, whereas new listings were down slightly compared to the previous month.

Looking ahead, while more buyers may enter the market as rates continue to decrease, it may take time for the existing inventory to be absorbed, suggesting a gradual recovery phase.
 

Monthly Discussion - Pricing Strategies

Setting an accurate asking price for a resale home is crucial, especially in a market that is leaning from more or less balanced market, toward a Buyer's market. In such conditions, Buyers have more options and greater leverage, so pricing a property correctly from the start can make all the difference. An overly ambitious asking price can deter potential buyers, causing the property to sit on the market longer. When a home remains unsold for an extended period, it can create the impression that there is something wrong with the property, further diminishing its appeal (often considered a phantom stigma!). This often forces sellers to make price reductions, which can weaken their negotiating position and reduce their overall return. 

➤ We've been watching a couple of improperly priced properties through to their ultimate sale, and can easily say these Sellers have lost between $25,000-$30,000 of value, due to ill-advised marketing foolery 🤯!   We aren't in a market where you can just guess at a price - do the homework, and price to what the market will bear.

In the Toronto market today, we are seeing around 25% of listings are getting 're-listed' within 30 days with a new price & strategy.  A poorly priced home can quickly become stale and extend its days on the market unnecessarily, not only increasing carrying costs for the Seller but also decreasing Buyer interest - properties that have been on the market longer are often perceived as less desirable.

➤ To avoid this cycle, setting a competitive and realistic asking price based on comparable sales and current market trends is essential. Coupled with a strong marketing strategy, accurate pricing helps attract serious buyers quickly, reduces the time on the market, and ultimately leads to a more successful sale, and hopefully, an extra $30,000 in your pocket! 

New Listings vs. Re-Listings - August 2024
 

A few samples of listing data from around the GTA for the month of August:

The average days-on-market fluctuates with the area, but we are typically seeing around 26-35 days for 'well priced' properties, and 46-65 days for ones with what we would call 'creative pricing'.  Generally speaking, the marketing strategy of marketing at a very reduced (under-market value) price point, and 'holding of offers' for a specific day, has had limited success -- most Buyers are simply waiting-out the Sellers, and hence why we see such a significant number of re-listings around the GTA. 
 

Moral of the story - get it priced right, right from the beginning!

York Region Housing Report (Markham / Unionville)

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board has released the most recent sales statistics for York Region including Markham and Unionville. See included charts below.

Click to download the detailed York Region Housing Report - (PDF) - with local regional breakdowns (i.e. markham, vaughan etc.)

Homeowner Protection Act 2024 Announced

Yesterday, the Government of Ontario announced the Homeowner Protection Act, 2024 – with several major wins for Ontario REALTORS® and hardworking families across the province, which OREA has advocated for in recent months and years.

The Act includes several REALTOR®-led advocacy priorities, most notably a 10-day cooling-off period for buyers of newly built freehold homes. This will allow purchasers 10 days to review and cancel an agreement without penalty, a protection that is already in place for pre-construction condo sales in Ontario. Extending this protection to newly constructed homes will enhance consumer protection and level the playing field between hardworking families and corporate developers.

Notably the Government will not be extending this protection to resale homes, which would have negatively impact both buyers and sellers.

The new legislation also bans the registration of Notices of Security Interest (NOSIs), reducing unnecessary fees from being tacked onto the price tag of a home. Too many Ontarians, when selling their home, have been surprised by one or more NOSIs – fine print in contracts for water coolers, furnaces, or security systems that include exorbitant buyout charges to be paid before the home can be sold.

Additionally, the Act will modernize zoning rules to allow for more homes to be built near public transit, making it easier and faster to increase Ontario’s housing supply in urban areas – a change that OREA has long-advocated for, including in their recent report, Analysis of Ontario’s Efforts to Boost Housing Supply.

The Homeowner Protection Act, 2024 is a significant step toward enhancing consumer protection for Ontarians making one of the largest transactions in their lives, all while building much-needed housing supply across the province.

Homebuyer's Guide

Follow the link below to download our new Home Buyer’s Guide - a great resource to help guide you through the home buying experience.

Download PDF Here

Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate

Wednesday April 10, 2024 - OTTAWA The Bank of Canada has maintained its overnight rate target at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank expects the global economy to continue growing at a rate of about 3%, with inflation in most advanced economies easing gradually. The US economy has proven stronger than anticipated, buoyed by resilient consumption and robust business and government spending.

One key cause for concern is a housing market that's showing signs of heating up. The benchmark average home price in Canada is down more than 17 per cent from its peak in 2022. But the numbers for December and January indicate the market may have bottomed out and started to rebound.

The Bank has revised its forecast for global GDP growth to 2.7% in 2024 and about 3% in 2025 and 2026. Inflation rates are projected to reach central bank targets in 2025. In Canada, economic growth stalled in the second half of last year and the economy moved into excess supply.

2024 Budget: Changes to the Non-Resident Speculation Tax (NRST)

With the recent release of the 2024 Ontario budget, the province is making some changes to the Non-Resident Speculation Tax (NRST). The NRST is the tax on the purchase or acquisition of an interest in residential property located anywhere in Ontario by individuals who are not Canadian citizens or permanent residents of Canada or by foreign corporations or taxable trustees.

Effective March 27, 2024, the following changes include:

• The rebate application deadline for foreign nationals who become permanent residents of Canada has been extended from 90 to 180 days.

• The NRST will now apply to the standalone purchase of a parking space or storage unit. Previously this only applied if the spaces were coupled with the purchase of a residential unit.

Changes were made to the qualifying rules for rebates and exemptions under the NRST:

• A purchaser must intend to occupy the home as their principal residence within 60 days of their purchase date.

• A purchaser must occupy the home as their principal residence until a rebate application is filed to remain eligible for a rebate.

• Enrolment or Employment for the international student/worker rebates must begin within 30 days of home purchase. (The rebates have been eliminated but transitional provisions allow applications until March 31, 2025).

• Spousal status must be obtained on or before the date of home purchase to be eligible for the exemption or rebate.

• Exemptions and rebates are not available if a foreign entity who is not on title acquires a beneficial interest in the home.

View the Ministry of Finance Letter on Changes to the NRST for more details. For further information on the Non-Resident Speculation Tax, click here.