What’s really happening in the Greater Toronto real estate market right now? Brad Macdonald from RE/MAX breaks down the Fall 2025 GTA housing market — including the latest price trends, interest rate effects, and what it all means for buyers, sellers, and investors across Markham, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, and the York Region area.
Market Update: Stability Returns, But Caution Remain
GTA Market Holding Steady Amid Shifting National Trends
As we head into the summer months, the Greater Toronto Area real estate market continues to demonstrate resilience, with new signs of balance emerging across several segments.
Inventory Levels Signal a Balanced Market
In Toronto, we are currently seeing approximately 4 months of inventory. This level is widely recognized as indicative of a balanced market, where conditions do not strongly favour either buyers or sellers. This provides some welcome stability after the volatility of the past few years. However, when we focus on the condo sector, months of inventory trend higher, as sales volumes continue to lag behind the freehold market. This segment may offer greater opportunities for buyers to negotiate or invest strategically.
National Numbers: A Mixed Bag
According to CREA, national home sales rose 3.6 percent from April to May, marking the first month-over-month increase since November 2024. While that is an encouraging sign of renewed buyer activity, it is important to view it in context:
Sales remain down 4.3 percent year-over-year, comparing May 2024 to May 2025
Average home prices are down 1.8 percent nationally, with Ontario seeing a larger decline of 4 percent
This reflects a still-sensitive landscape where affordability and borrowing costs continue to influence decision-making.
Interest Rates in a Neutral Zone
The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate at 2.75 percent during the last update. This is considered a neutral rate, meaning it is neither overly restrictive nor particularly stimulating for the housing sector. We are hedging toward the BoC maintaining rates at the upcoming meetings, as our inflation rate has started to creep back up in recent weeks. While stability is generally welcomed by the market, a slightly lower rate would likely encourage more activity among both buyers and builders. This could help support inventory growth and new construction starts, particularly in higher-demand areas. Market watchers are paying close attention to upcoming announcements.
Trade Talks May Impact the Broader Outlook
Beyond interest rates, broader economic forces are also shaping the market outlook. A finalized Canada–U.S. trade agreement would provide welcome stability for key sectors including construction, manufacturing, and finance. In turn, this would help reinforce consumer confidence and support both urban and suburban real estate markets.
Toronto Real Estate Market Update: May Brings a Slower Spring and More Buyer Power
Sales Slowdown Creates Opportunity
This past May marked one of the slowest spring real estate markets Toronto has seen in over two decades. According to new data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), just 6,244 homes were sold across the GTA — a 13% drop compared to the same time last year.
With the exception of May 2020 during early pandemic lockdowns, this is the lowest number of May sales since 2002. And it’s worth noting: our population has grown by over 35% since then.
Home Prices Edge Down Across the Board
The average sale price across the GTA in May was $1.1 million, representing a 4% decline year-over-year. Different property types experienced varying levels of price correction:
Semi-detached homes: down 8.4%
Condos: down 7.3%
Detached homes: down 5.6%
Townhomes: down 3.3%
Lower prices combined with slightly reduced borrowing costs have improved affordability, but many buyers remain hesitant due to broader economic concerns.
Inventory Rising, Confidence Lagging
New listings are on the rise. Nearly 22,000 properties came to market in May — up 14% year-over-year. With more listings and fewer sales, the sales-to-new-listings ratio sits at 28%, confirming a buyers’ market. That means:
More choice for buyers
Greater negotiating power
Slower pace = more time to make decisions
Interest Rates, Trade Tensions & What's Next
Market activity continues to be shaped by economic uncertainty, especially around trade with the U.S. and Bank of Canada interest rate decisions. While some expect a rate cut in the near future, the central bank has so far held steady.
Still, we are seeing early signs of recovery: both sales and prices increased slightly compared to April on a seasonally adjusted basis. That’s two months in a row showing a positive trend.
Final Thoughts
For Buyers, this is a rare moment of leverage — more supply, less competition, and room to negotiate.
For Sellers, pricing strategy and strong marketing are critical to stand out in a crowded marketplace.
Whether you’re looking to move soon or just want to better understand your home’s current value, I’m here to help you navigate today’s evolving market.
GTA REALTORS® Release January 2021 Stats
With the January sales numbers rolling in, our thoughts on the recent activity in the market are proving correct all around the GTA. Differing opinions if this is truly a ‘bubble’, but regardless, the market is certainly on fire.
January 2021 home sales amounted to 6,928 – up by more than 50 per cent compared to January 2020. This strong start to 2021 included sales growth across all major segments including condominium apartments, both in the City of Toronto and surrounding GTA regions.
New listings were also up on a year-over-year basis in January, but not by the same annual rate as sales. This means market conditions tightened compared to January 2020, resulting in the continuation of double-digit growth in the MLS® Home Price Index and the average selling price.
The average selling price for January 2021 was up by 15.5 per cent to $967,885 year-over-year. The MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark was up by 11.9 per cent over the same period.
Price growth was driven by the low-rise market segments, while the average condo apartment price was down in Toronto. However, if we continue to see condo sales growth outstrip condo listings growth, we could start to see renewed growth in condo prices later this year.
You can review the full details of the most recent statistics by downloading this months MarketWatch (PDF).
Toronto & GTA: Market Perspective
It is almost like you need to do a double-take and check the calendar to see if it is indeed 2021, and not 2017. Toronto and most of the GTA has been experiencing all the hallmarks of a continually strong ‘Sellers’ market, with many of the same hallmarks of the 2017 peak.
Mostly attributed to the detached market, we are back to seeing multiple-offer situations on nearly every property on the lower side of the price range. If you are looking for a detach or semi-detached home and have less than $1.7MM to spend, you should prepare yourself for some solid competition.
Condos are a bit of a different scenario - in December we had sales of 2,193 units, and there are currently available for sale 2,934 units on MLS, which equals about 1.33 months' supply. While it has been difficult to move some of the smaller bachelor and studio condos, with a bit of time the larger units are still moving well. Compare that to a total availability of just 1,045 freehold (detach, semi, town) available in all of Toronto.
For comparison purposes, a typical ‘balanced market’ usually has about 4-6 months of ‘supply’ available, versus the sales volume. Interesting to consider - with a total of just under 4,000 total properties for sale, and over 58,000+ registered Agents in the Toronto Board… you can see how there can be immense pressure on what is available.
Unfortunately, that competition for properties - and between Agents - often comes along with a lack of proper advice, borderline unethical behaviour, and some Agents putting their own needs ahead of their Clients. We are seeing all sorts of crazy ‘offers’, especially for new Buyers, going into situations they are simply not prepared for — no protection for arranging financing, or home inspections in many cases. The lesson here is that despite the bit of bedlam the current market is bringing us, it does not reduce the liability of an Agent, nor mean that you should ignore all the risks just to try to win a deal.
There are many other ways to protect yourself as both a Buyer or a Seller, do things the right way, and still come out ahead.
If you are thinking of buying or selling, before you make a move - call us! We are always available to talk about strategy, the marketplace, and of course here to offer the best possible advice and guidance we can, no strings attached.
