How do we answer the most common question we hear in the industry?

“Whats happening with the home prices in my area?”

That question has been a tough one to succinctly answer for quite some time.  Everyone is well aware that we’ve been going through a rapid transition, being pushed by the Bank of Canada’s interest-rate changes over the last 6 or so months.

Opinions on the home-price trajectory were significantly different depending on your source - even the big-3 banks had wildly different projections (dips year-over-year anywhere from 10% to 40% or more) - however, what we see in a more thorough look at our market segments is often quite different.

One of the biggest factors that influence these statistics (aka clickbait) is the reality that in many cases, what we are seeing ‘on the market’ in a year-versus-lastyear comparison, are not necessarily “like for like” homes.  When the market is on the upward trend, we tend so see more highly-upgraded, highly-desirable properties on the market - which tend to dominate the upper end of the sales in each segment.  However, when we are progressing through a softer marketplace, where prices have been receding from recent highs, many of those top-tier homeowners may opt for the sit-and-wait approach.  

As we search with our Buyer-clients, we start to see this through the available inventory at any given time — the number of purely average homes starts to increase versus those higher-end gems.  These homes of course, tend to command lower prices, even in the best of times - becoming a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy.  

If we don’t see the best-of-the-best up for sale, it’s obvious that we will see lower sale prices in current statistics.

The good news for Realtors, is that homeowners understanding and acceptance of this more modest market is starting to take hold.  We are seeing smaller gaps between asking and sale prices, as Vendors are adjusting to market realities, and list-prices are becoming more in-line with realistic expectations.   This is a win-win for everybody, as there is nothing more challenging than a Vendor that has the mental valuation of their home from the peak in late 2021!

In summary, in the majority of the communities around the GTA, we are seeing a rather balanced marketplace.  A welcome return to truly ‘negotiating’ a deal, and a much less stressful environment for many buyers.   Sure, there still are those gem’s out there commanding multiple-offers and offer-review dates, but they are much more of a minority than a year ago today.

Curious for more details on your homes valuation in today’s market? Feel free to connect with us - we are always happy to offer free, no-commitment home evaluations, just ask!

Stock Media provided by AndreyPopov / Pond5

GTA REALTORS® Release October Stats

Despite the continued housing market transition to a higher borrowing cost environment, the average selling price in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) found some support near $1.1 million since the late summer. GTA home sales continued to adjust to substantially higher interest rates in October 2022, both on an annual and monthly basis. However, new listings are also down year-over-year and month-over-month. The persistent lack of inventory helps explain why the downward trend in home prices experienced in the spring has flattened over the past three months.

GTA REALTORS® reported 4,961 sales through the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s (TRREB) MLS® System in October 2022 – a similar number to September 2022 but down by 49.1 per cent compared to October 2021. Yearover-year sales declines were similar across major market segments.

New listings were down by 11.6 per cent year-over-year and reached an October level not seen since 2010. New listings were down on an annual basis more so for mid-density and high-density home types, which helps to explain why prices have held up better in these categories compared to detached houses.

“With new listings at or near historic lows, a moderate uptick in demand from current levels would result in a noticeable tightening in the resale housing market in short order. Obviously, there is still a lot of short-term economic uncertainty. In the medium-to-long-term, however, the demand for housing will rebound. Public policy initiatives like the recently introduced provincial More Homes Built Faster Act and strong mayor provisions will help ensure we see more homes being built to affordably meet the needs of new households,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was down by 1.3 per cent year-over-year in October 2022. The average selling price for all home types combined, at $1,089,428, was down by 5.7 per cent compared to October 2021. The monthly trends for both the MLS® HPI Composite and the average selling price have flattened in recent months following steeper declines in the spring and early summer.

“Home prices in the GTA have found support in recent months because price declines in the spring and summer mitigated the impact of higher borrowing costs on average monthly mortgage payments. The Bank of Canada’s most recent messaging suggests that they are reaching the end of their tightening cycle. Bond yields dipped as a result, suggesting that fixed mortgage rates may trend lower moving forward, which would help affordability,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

What's driving Toronto's Housing Prices

RE/MAX Canada posted a great take on the drivers behind Toronto’s market recovery and housing prices. From RE/MAX.ca:

The real estate sector can be a real mystery. Prices drive ever higher, drop, and then get back to soaring again with no apparent reason. Or is there a reason? There’s always something responsible for driving up housing prices. For Toronto, the spotlight has returned to detached housing, which has pulled up the average price for the first half of 2019.

Upward Momentum

“With recovery well underway in the detached housing segment, the residential real estate market is starting to fire on all cylinders,” says Christopher Alexander, Executive Vice President and Regional Director RE/MAX of Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “The possibility of more relaxed mortgage rules down the road – in conjunction with today’s low interest rate environment – may serve to spark up the GTA housing market yet again.”

According to the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB), over half of their districts report upward momentum in average price thanks to single-detached home sales. This is a major contributor to the uptick in average price, in over 50% of the GTA’s neighbourhoods, according to a RE/MAX of Ontario-Atlantic Canada report.

The report looked at trends and developments in 65 TREB districts. They discovered detached home sales were up in close to 88% of the markets. Between January and June 2019, 51% of markets saw increases compared to last year.

Good Old 905

The greatest increases were seen in the 905 area. The report indicates all 30 905 neighbourhoods saw an increase in both home-buying activity and rising sales of detached homes. Of those communities, 43% experienced price appreciation. Meanwhile, in the once-dominant 416 area, 20 of the 35 districts experienced an increase in sales. Detached prices in these areas increased by 57% of the 416 neighbourhoods.

Back on Track

Torontonian detached homeowners can let out a sigh of relief as detached housing has found its way back on track. Year-to-date increases in sales are almost 17% ahead of last year. That is good news, and it indicates a return to more normal levels of home-buying activity.

 “Market share is also climbing, with detached homes now representing 45.7 per cent of all home sales in the Greater Toronto Area, up from 43.1 per cent one year ago,” says Alexander.

Greater Affordability

So, it’s back to wondering why detached home sales are seeing an uptick. In this case, it’s all about greater affordability. However, RE/MAX also found the tried-and-true mantra “location, location, location” to be a factor as well.

First-time and trade-up buyers are choosing to secure prime Toronto real estate before values are on the move again, especially in light of the stress test. The leader, when looking at the percentage increase in average detached home price, is the city’s east end, which includes North Riverdale, South Riverdale, Blake-Jones, and Greenwood-Coxwell (EO1). Here, the average price rose 15.2% to $1,378,987.

Not too far behind is the always-popular Trinity-Bellwoods, Palmerston-Little Italy, Niagara, Little Portugal, Kensington-Chinatown, and Dufferin Grove (CO1). These popular neighbourhoods saw a 12.8% increase in average price, reaching $1,953,511.

Rounding out the top five are:

Third place: Leaside and Thorncliffe Park (C11) held a respectable third place with an 11.2% increase in detached housing values to $2,193,747.

Fourth place: Scarborough’s Dorset Park, Wexford-Maryvale, Clairlea-Birchmount, Longview, and Kennedy Park (E04) with a 7.8% increase to $836,585.

 Fifth place: Toronto’s Junction, High Park North, Runnymede-Bloor West Village, Lambton-Baby Point, and Dovercourt-Wallace Emerson-Junction (W02) with a 7.1% increase to $1,410,057.

Prices in all but the one area in Scarborough still sit well above the $1-million mark.

Top Five: Seller’s Markets

TREB Market Watch reports the top five neighbourhoods as seller’s markets in June. A classic seller’s market is characterized by low inventory levels, which in some cases, can lead to bidding wars. In other words, a seller’s dream.

As well, TREB reported the sales-to-active listings ratio ranged between 62.5% in C01 to a high of 88.8% in E01.

Buyer’s Markets

In about 45% of GTA districts within the 416 area, good inventory means it’s a buyer’s market. RE/MAX noted areas north of Bloor had attracted opportunities for negotiation, particularly for homes that are topping $2 million. Going further south, the market conditions get tighter.

“Heated demand clearly exists for single-detached housing south of Bloor Street, but there are pockets throughout the 416 that are scorching hot,” explains Alexander. “The Oakwood-Vaughan area in C03, where homes can still be had for just over the $1 million price point, is one of those neighbourhoods, while C10, comprised of Sherwood Park, Mount Pleasant West, Mount Pleasant East, is another. The Junction Area, High Park North, and Runnymede-Bloor West Village (W02) in the west end and Leslieville (E01) and the Beach (E02) in the east are also highly sought-after, with close proximity to transportation and vibrant shopping avenues the common denominators drawing younger buyers.”

First-time buyers can look for cracks that can be exploited in York Region to get the best value if they want to get in on the market.

Scarborough Rules Unit Sales

If you want to talk unit sales, the top performers were markets offering single-detached homes under the $1-million price point, with Scarborough’s L’Amoreaux, Tam O’Shanter-Sullivan, Steeles neighbourhood (E05) at the top. This area experienced the most notable upswing when considering the percentage increase in sales. This little pocket saw a 76.2% increase to 148 units sold.

The other areas seeing unit sales increases include:

Milliken, Agincourt North, Agincourt South, and Malvern West (E07) ranked second, with a 57.1% increase and 132 sales.

 Yorkdale-Glen Park, Briar Hill-Belgravia, Brookhaven-Amesbury, Weston, Maple Leaf, Rustic, Beechborough-Greenbrook, Mount Dennis, Humberlea, and Pelmo Park (W04) in the west end reported a 50% gain to 204 units sold.

 Simcoe County’s Essa reported a 43.6% increase in sales of 168 units.

 Downsview-Roding-CFB, Glenfield-Jane Heights, Black Creek, Humbermede, York University Heights, and Humberlea-Pelmo Park (W05) in the west end rounded out the top five with a 37.1% increase in sales to 144 units.

Recovery to the North

There are signs of recovery to the north, with York Region’s Richmond Hill ranking sixth for detached home sales at an average price of $1,380,253. This reflects a 36.1% increase to 615 sales. In general, the northern GTA, an area that was hit hard during the correction, appears to be experiencing recovery.

So, it’s hats off to the detached housing segment as the key factor for what is driving Toronto real estate prices!